Fact Check: Developing Nations Leapfrog Fossil Fuels to Renewable Energy Future

I love charts. Especially charts like this one. And by the end of this video,

I bet you will love it too. Because this right here means that a bunch of countries

are about to do something amazing. They're skipping past 200 years of fossil fuels, coal plants,

oil trade, energy crises – to a future built on cheap,

clean and renewable electricity. Let's take a look.

I'm a data journalist. When I see an article saying that "India is bypassing the fossil fuel detour",

I have to check for myself. So I downloaded energy data for all the countries in the world,

wrote some code, made some drafts – I'll spare you the details.

Here's how it works. This chart shows the history of where the energy we use comes from.

Let's take the US as an example. Before fossil fuels, everyone was in this corner over here,

using biomass. Think wood fired ovens, waste burning,

candles. In the following decades, the US moved from biomass

all the way down here. They built their industrial society on fossil fuels: coal ovens,

gas stoves, petrol in cars. Lots more energy,

but also lots of emissions. Then slowly, electricity became more important.

Electric stoves, light bulbs, or, more recently,

electric cars and heat pumps. This is the good stuff. What we want more of.

Because when we power this electro-tech with renewable electricity like solar and wind, we get all the benefits of modern society

with none of the emissions downsides. The US took a long journey down into fossil fuels before they slowly made their way

towards this corner. Today, around 20% of energy used in the US comes from electricity,

and this curve looks pretty much the same for any country across Europe and North America. Wood first,

then fossil fuels, and then, slowly,

more electricity – also still mostly made using fossil fuels. Some experts call this the fossil fuel detour.

It made the West super rich, but it also got all of us into this mess. Greenhouse gases,

rising temperatures, climate crisis. You know the deal.

But the good news is that the fossil fuel detour may be a thing of the past. Look at China, for instance.

They started industrializing around here, from the 1950s. Coal, oil and gas were still essential,

but electricity could be integrated much quicker than in 1900s USA. So they turn off towards electrification

a little earlier than the West. That sets them up better for using renewables now

and in the future. But this is where it gets super interesting. A lot of countries

are building their energy infrastructure today. And these countries are on the fast track, dipping less into fossil energy

and moving much quicker from biomass to electricity. That includes countries like India

in the lower middle income bracket. They're electrifying, at least as fast as China,

with even less of a detour. And it also includes low income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa,

they're on the fast track to electrifying without the dip into fossil fuels. That means

the countries with the lowest income right now are the ones best placed

to run on cheap, clean, renewable electricity.

There are a few reasons this is happening. First, cheaper tech: refrigerators,

electric stoves, air conditioners have all become a lot cheaper

in the last decades, and that goes for transport too. Electric cars are still a luxury item in most places,

but they have gotten cheaper. And scooters and motorbikes are already there in India, Indonesia or Vietnam.

They now cost the same as a petrol model to buy, but a lot less to fuel. And emerging economies have another advantage.

"You also don't have industries which we have built up, you know, which are making the machinery

for the fossil fuel system, which kind of resists change." That's Kingsmill Bond.

He's an energy strategist at the renewables think tank Ember, and he wrote that article I mentioned earlier.

He says many emerging economies have less old fossil fuel infrastructure to maintain, fewer coal mining jobs, to lose,

fewer old gas boilers to upgrade than the West. "And therefore it's much easier to pivot to the future."

And that future is looking renewable. In the last few years, solar power in particular has become so effective

and so cheap, it's essentially a no brainer, financially speaking. Especially right now.

"Of course, having the second fossil fuel crisis in four years' time, obviously, it increases the interest towards renewables."

This is Aleksi Lumijärvi, director for knowledge, policy and finance at the International Renewable Energy Agency.

He says the world is getting the memo. In 2023, only around a quarter of all electricity

was renewable globally. But almost all new capacity added these days is based on solar or wind power.

And big economies like India or Vietnam are not only catching up. Most of them are already using more renewables

than richer countries. In 2023, solar power alone made up at least 6% of electricity in India,

ten in Vietnam. The global average was 5%. That makes them a lot cleaner

than the US or China were at the same level of economic development. And solar panel imports

suggest actual figures might be even higher. "This is not a theoretical story at all. We're seeing a leapfrog take place

right across the emerging markets. But the whole of Asia is moving quickly, and the whole of Europe and the United States

is stagnant." In Pakistan, for example, people have been buying solar panels from China

en masse in the past few years to avoid steep electricity prices and frequent power outages.

"People are just going out there and buying balcony solar and rooftop solar and putting on their homes

and getting cheap energy." That is particularly important when it comes to this group of countries,

most of them across Sub-Saharan Africa. Some of the people there don't have access to electricity at all.

In rural areas, there might simply be no grid to connect to.

At the same time, countries in this category have to import any fossil fuels they use,

making energy crises and oil price fluctuations hit much harder. All problems that renewables

are great at solving. Most of Europe doesn't get nearly as much sun as the Global South.

Countries there are among the best suited in the whole world for using solar power,

and they have enough space for solar farms to cover electricity demand hundreds of times over.

Decentralized mini grids or rooftop solar can be set up anywhere – quickly,

flexibly and cheaply. That makes going electric

a solution for both energy access and energy independence. "If you add solar plus batteries,

you can get cheap electricity about 90% of the time from the sun alone.

The foundation of your system can become solar, solar plus batteries right across the global Sun Belt.

So it's a massive advantage." And we're already seeing countries seize this advantage. Ethiopia in 2024

became the first country to fully ban the import of petrol cars. Electric vehicles, meanwhile,

are duty free and are becoming more common quickly. In the next decade or two,

these sorts of decisions can lead to some pretty big changes to the global economy,

says Aleksi Lumijärvi at IRENA. "It will be cheaper, cleaner,

secure to produce electricity in the South, so that will mean

that an increasing amount of industrial companies will find out that actually

it's going to be cheaper for us if we moved our production to, for example, somewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa,

because they have this cheap, firm, clean

solar power plus batteries available." That could be true for a lot of industries, from factories

to data centers powering AI infrastructure. Our whole global economy is hungry for electricity. So where electricity is cheap

and abundant, wealth will follow. "You're going to have faster growth

in the emerging markets, you will have less financial crises. It will make a material difference

to people's quality of lives." So we're in a really exciting time right now. A lot of countries are electrifying fast.

Renewables forecasts keep getting upgraded every year. And while the West got rich on coal and oil,

the Global South might do it on water, sun and wind alone.

If we follow this path, we're headed for something that feels pretty rare.

Low income countries have the edge here. They're the ones that will lead the way to a world built on cheap,

abundant, independent, and sustainable electricity.

Have you noticed renewables become cheaper where you live? Let us know in the comments

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